Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at 76ers, March 10 (7:30 p.m. Over his last 18 games, hes averaging 28.7 points with bonkers shooting splits (54.4/49.5/91.6). FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. Philadelphia 76ers (+750 . Lowry, the greatest player in franchise history, missed the first game in Toronto on Jan. 17 because he was away from the team for personal reasons. You can find the full 2022-23 NBA championship odds below. (Or maybe it just hates the Golden State Warriors.) I performed a logit regression on NBA Finals results since 2000 while controlling for the pre-series Elo ratings of each team, and I found that a team with home-court advantage over an evenly matched opponent would be expected to win the series 57 percent of the time meaning most of the perceived advantage of home court in the historical Finals records was just an artifact of the better team also having the home court more often than not. Ormaybe youre set on the Warriors. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: Beating the LA Clippers on Dec. 31. If you are having difficulty accessing any content on this website, please visit our Accessibility page. Must-see game left on the schedule - Heat at Raptors, April 3 (7 p.m. Finally, we have to talk about the race for the bottom of the standings in both conferences, which is sure to be impacted by the Tank-O-Rama for Victor Wembanyama. It freed up minutes on the wing and gave the Hawks a pick to potentially use down the road to continue to build the roster. If thats the case, then teams that remained mostly quiet or added role players in small trades may be best positioned in this years championship market. Values and rankings in key statistical categories for the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors during the 2021-22 NBA playoffs. Lets take a look at those eight contenders and where they stand as the NBA races to the finish line. How quickly they can get on the floor, get up to speed and revive a struggling defense could make the difference. He let his frustration out in a moment that will be remembered long after the season ends. They came away with a big victory over Cleveland (when Trae Young notched another 40-point performance) while continuing their climb toward .500. If those players stay healthy, the Raptors have a chance to be a threat. Pivot point for the rest of the season: How will Harden fit? From a mall parking lot altercation to a fight with a teenager during a pickup game, these are the allegations Ja Morant is facing. Dallas has been a less popular target than Phoenix but is still one of the top four favorites in the West. The Joel Embiid-James Harden duo has been excellent. FiveThirtyEights preseason NBA title favorite and the eventual champion by season, plus the number of teams with at least 5 percent title odds, since 2015-16. RAPTOR foresees a significant drop-off from that group of five teams to the Easts four play-in squads, as well as from the play-in group to the also-rans. Can The NBAs Experimental Endgame Make It To Games That Count? Speaking of wildcards, who knows what to make of the Sixers. The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team. Its all about health. Web The Ringer s NBA Odds Machine gives the Celtics an 11 percent chance to win the title and were not alone. Atlanta's big stretch under McMillan that led them to the 2020-21 conference finals showed he can push the right buttons down the stretch. There isn't a more anticipated game the rest of this regular season across the NBA. Chase Kiddy breaks down how the NBA Trade Deadline has shaken up betting markets. If you were to lay down $100, youd see a payout of $650 you get your $100 back, plus your earnings of $550. Suddenly, the 76ers went from being down an All-Star and wondering how they would replace him, to reuniting Harden with Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey, forming arguably the league's toughest 1-2 scoring punch with Embiid. will be almost everything for L.A. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have been in and out of the lineup. They got even deeper at the deadline acquiring stretch big Mike Muscala from the Oklahoma City Thunder. In five of the previous seven seasons, the eventual title winner came from the group of teams with 5 percent odds or better, so theres a decent chance we will be crowning one of those aforementioned squads next June though that doesnt narrow things down very much. Three (the Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics . Weighted by the minutes played in the 2022 playoffs, the average Golden State player had 2,031 previous career postseason minutes, second among playoff teams behind only the Brooklyn Nets.1 But Boston ranks fourth in that metric among playoff teams, with an average of 1,573 previous playoff minutes, so its not exactly a landslide edge for the Warriors. Teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Clippers will be in the mix again and you cant sleep on the defending champions Golden State Warriors or young and hungry Memphis Grizzlies. But bettors may not mind the coaching shuffle. The Sixers might have found their answer at backup center in the rugged P.J. Here is how FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR currently has the NBA's playoff seeds unfolding (title odds via Fanduel in parentheses):. All rights reserved. The figures are updated daily, but with a 69-game sample size, the odds appear to be leaning the Clippers way in about 21,000 of the simulations. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. finding their groove has been huge, but so have the additions of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown. But now the Sixers have to acclimate themselves to one of the league's biggest -- and most ball-dominant -- stars in 24 games between now and the start of the playoffs. Denver also added Thomas Bryant to fix their backup center issues and plucked Reggie Jackson off the buyout market though the early returns on those additions havent been as promising. Suddenly, the season has been infused with a massive burst of energy and excitement. And with that being said, Golden State would also have homecourt advantage over either the Heat and Celtics should the team advance. Game metrics are on a 0-100 scale. Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. The Hawks odds themselves have collapsed, dropping from +8000 a month ago to +15000 after the coaching change. The Cavs dropped their final two games entering the break, but it hardly slowed the momentum for the biggest surprise contender in the conference. src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=674090812743125&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.9%. Must-see game left on the schedule: Mavericks at Wizards, April 1 (7 p.m. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesnt account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each players future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. White is exactly the kind of player the Celtics needed, one capable of playing at both ends of the court and, equally important, makes smart, quick decisions with the ball. Atlanta Hawks (36) Thats a dangerous upgrade for a team that made last years Western Conference Finals. Devin Booker and Chris Paul have both missed a lot of time and Phoenix sits at fourth in the West. Theres likely nobody that misses Adams more than All-Star Ja Morant. Preseason predicted standings for the NBAs 2022-23 Western Conference, according to FiveThirtyEights RAPTOR-based forecast. For Dallas, Doni projects nearly as well on offense as does Joki, which is more than enough to carry a supporting cast full of players who project somewhere between minus-0.5 and plus-1.4 in total RAPTOR. Brooklyn Nets: Yes (-2500) / No (+950) Despite trading Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, the Nets are getting very short odds to make the playoffs and FanDuel is offering +980 odds for them to miss the postseason. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are simply not enough to carry a roster filled with negative players, some of whom are significant drags on the teams projection. The Warriors regular-season projection is dragged down a bit by the poor ratings of James Wiseman and Jonathan Kuminga, both of whom are projected to be fixtures in the Warriors rotation. Still, the Grizzlies are a deep squad. Health is going to be huge for Phoenix. The Lakers ended up dropping the game to Memphis, 121-109. A healthy Nets squad with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Simmons comes to town for a showdown with Butler and Co. Pivot point for the rest of the season: The key for this veteran bunch is being able to stay healthy. Carter has reportedly left the combine after allegations of his role in a fatal car accident. As of February 21, about 14% of all Western Conference champion tickets at BetMGM were backing Phoenix; 10% of all NBA championship tickets were also on the Suns. The Nuggets have the reigning two-time MVP and the best record in the West yet find themselves with the fourth-best odds. Caesars title odds: +10000 This NBA season is wide open, but only a select handful of teams can actually win the title. The Suns were +1600 to hoist the Larry OBrien Trophy just one month ago, sliding to their lowest position since before the 2021 Finals appearance. 3 overall draft pick has made himself the favorite for Rookie of the Year honors with 14.9 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game, while helping anchor a Cavs defense that ranks fourth in the league. Philadelphia will have Harden in the lineup by then, so this game could provide a solid measuring stick for the upstart team as Cleveland prepares for its return to playoff basketball. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +1500 Most impactful moment during the season's first half: The Harden trade. Thats a rookie mistake. Milwaukee has reiterated it expects Lopez, who is recovering from back surgery, and guard Pat Connaughton, who fractured a finger the night of the trade deadline, to return before the end of the regular season. It would be extremely unusual for the Kings to snap a historic playoff drought by winning the title with virtually no playoff experience. At +550, the Celtics implied probability to win with these odds is 15.38 percent. Golden State Warriors (224) All boast championship odds between 5 and 7 percent and are projected for between 49 and 51 wins with point differentials between plus-3.0 and plus-3.8 per game. Its also worth noting that the Celtics, who emerge as the favorite here, are tied with the 2020-21 Lakers for the lowest title odds (21 percent) of any preseason favorite since the forecast began in 2015-16. All rights reserved. Design and development by Jay Boice. Years Western Conference, according to FiveThirtyEights RAPTOR-based forecast a threat over Cleveland ( when Trae Young notched another performance. The 2021-22 NBA playoffs Thats a dangerous upgrade for a team that last... Celtics should the team advance: +10000 this NBA season is wide open, but only a handful... 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